Understanding the Westgate Fiscal Impact Model: A Simple Explanation
As Bernards Township residents consider the proposed Westgate development, one question deserves a straightforward answer:
Will the property taxes generated by the development cover the cost of the public services it creates, particularly education costs?
The Westgate fiscal impact model attempts to estimate that question using publicly available demographic and cost data. It is not a prediction, but rather an illustrative analysis designed to show the potential financial impact on local taxpayers.
Step 1: Estimating the Number of New Residents
The proposal includes 574 rental units. Using an average occupancy assumption of 2.63 residents per unit (Fair Share Housing Report published by Bernards Township), the model estimates approximately 1,510 new residents would live in the development.
Calculation:
574 units × 2.63 residents per unit = 1,510 residents
Step 2: Estimating School-Age Children
The model assumes that 27.1% of residents are under age 18 (Fair Share Housing report published by Bernards Township). Applying that percentage to the estimated population results in approximately 409 residents under 18 years old.
Calculation:
1,510 residents × 27.1% = 409 residents under 18
"Under 18" is used as a proxy and is not a verified K-12 enrollment estimate. Actual student enrollment could be higher or lower.
Step 3: Estimating Special Education Needs
The model assumes that 15% of children (state reported estimates) would have an Individualized Education Program (IEP). Applying that percentage to the 409 residents under 18 yields an estimate of 61 children with IEPs.
Calculation:
409 × 15% = 61 students with IEPs
Step 4: Calculating Education Costs
The model then estimates the cost to educate the children living in the development using separate assumptions for:
General education students
Special education students (IEP recipients)
The model uses:
$23,393 annual cost per general education student (as reported by Bernards Township BOE)
$32,674 annual cost per special education student (reported as the State of New Jersey estimated average cost)
Using these assumptions, the model estimates:
Category | Estimated Cost |
General Education | $8.14 million |
Special Education | $1.99 million |
Total Education Cost | $10.1 million |
Step 5: Estimating Property Tax Revenue
The analysis assumes an average property tax contribution of $12,121 per unit (derived by using the tax revenue for the Dewey Meadow Farms development and dividing by total number of units at that location). Applying that figure across the 574 units results in approximately $6.9 million in property tax revenue attributable to the development, with only $4.6 million attributable to the school costs..
Calculation:
574 units × $12,121 * 67% (school tax portion) = approximately $4.6 million
Step 6: Comparing Costs to Revenue
The key takeaway from the model is the difference between:
Estimated annual education costs: $10.1 million
Estimated school property tax revenue: $4.6 million
This produces a projected annual shortfall of approximately $5.5 million
Important Limitations
The model notes that this is an illustrative analysis and that actual outcomes could differ significantly. Factors that could affect the results include:
Unit mix and occupancy levels
Actual number of school-age children
Actual number of students requiring special education services
Property assessments
PILOT agreements (if any)
State education aid
Actual K-12 enrollment patterns
Because each of these variables can materially impact revenues and costs, the model should be viewed as a tool for discussion rather than a definitive forecast.
Why This Matters
The central argument behind the analysis is simple:
Before approving a large residential development, residents should understand both the potential tax revenues and the potential costs, especially school-related costs that often make up the largest portion of local budgets. The model suggests that a full fiscal impact study and school-capacity analysis would help provide a clearer picture of the project's long-term impact on Bernards Township taxpayers.
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